TY - UNPB

T1 - Estimating poverty transitions in Mozambique using synthetic panels

T2 - A validation exercise and an application to cross-sectional survey data

AU - Salvucci, Vincenzo

AU - Tarp, Finn

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - In this paper we first validate the use of the synthetic panels technique in the context ofthe 2014/15 intra-year panel survey data for Mozambique, and then apply the same technique tothe 1996/97, 2002/03, 2008/09, and 2014/15 cross-sectional household budget surveys for thesame country. We find that in most analyses poverty rates and poverty transitions estimated usingsynthetic panels provide results that are close to the true values obtained using the 2014/15 paneldata. With respect to intra-year poverty dynamics, we find that Mozambique has a high intra-yearvariability in consumption and poverty, and a very high degree of intra-year poverty immobility,with a big portion of the population remaining either in poverty or out of poverty over the wholeyear, with smaller percentages of individuals moving upward or downward. With respect to the1996/97, 2002/03, 2008/09, and 2014/15 cross-sectional surveys, our results suggest that in mostyear-to-year comparisons there is a greater proportion of people getting out of poverty than fallinginto poverty, consistent with the poverty-reduction process observed, but the percentage of peoplestaying in poverty over time appears to be substantially higher, involving about one-third of thepopulation in most years. Further analyses on the 2008/09 and 2014/15 surveys estimate that foran individual who was in the vulnerable group in 2008/09, there is a 60 per cent probability ofremaining in the same group, whereas the probability of becoming non-vulnerable is lower thanthe probability of entering poverty. This constitutes the first attempt to provide an insight intopoverty dynamics in Mozambique using all the available survey data.

AB - In this paper we first validate the use of the synthetic panels technique in the context ofthe 2014/15 intra-year panel survey data for Mozambique, and then apply the same technique tothe 1996/97, 2002/03, 2008/09, and 2014/15 cross-sectional household budget surveys for thesame country. We find that in most analyses poverty rates and poverty transitions estimated usingsynthetic panels provide results that are close to the true values obtained using the 2014/15 paneldata. With respect to intra-year poverty dynamics, we find that Mozambique has a high intra-yearvariability in consumption and poverty, and a very high degree of intra-year poverty immobility,with a big portion of the population remaining either in poverty or out of poverty over the wholeyear, with smaller percentages of individuals moving upward or downward. With respect to the1996/97, 2002/03, 2008/09, and 2014/15 cross-sectional surveys, our results suggest that in mostyear-to-year comparisons there is a greater proportion of people getting out of poverty than fallinginto poverty, consistent with the poverty-reduction process observed, but the percentage of peoplestaying in poverty over time appears to be substantially higher, involving about one-third of thepopulation in most years. Further analyses on the 2008/09 and 2014/15 surveys estimate that foran individual who was in the vulnerable group in 2008/09, there is a 60 per cent probability ofremaining in the same group, whereas the probability of becoming non-vulnerable is lower thanthe probability of entering poverty. This constitutes the first attempt to provide an insight intopoverty dynamics in Mozambique using all the available survey data.

KW - Faculty of Social Sciences

KW - poverty dynamics

KW - poverty transitions

KW - Mozambique

KW - synthetic panels

U2 - 10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2021/964-8

DO - 10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2021/964-8

M3 - Working paper

VL - 26

T3 - UNU WIDER Working Paper Series

BT - Estimating poverty transitions in Mozambique using synthetic panels

PB - UNU-WIDER

ER -