TY - JOUR

T1 - Population, food and knowledge

T2 - A simple unified growth theory

AU - Strulik, Holger

AU - Weisdorf, Jacob Louis

N1 - JEL Classifications: O11, O14, J10, J13

PY - 2008

Y1 - 2008

N2 - This paper provides a unified growth theory, i.e. a model that explains the very long-run economic and demographic development path of industrialized economies, stretching from the pre-industrial era to the present-day and beyond. Making strict use of Malthus' (An essay on the principle of population. London, printed for J. Johnson, 1798) so-called preventive check hypothesis-that fertility rates vary inversely with the price of food-the current study offers a new and straightforward explanation for the demographic transition and the break with the Malthusian era. Employing a two-sector framework with agriculture and industry, we demonstrate how fertility responds differently to productivity and income growth, depending on whether it emerges in agriculture or industry. Agricultural productivity and income growth makes food goods, and therefore children, relatively less expensive. Industrial productivity and income growth, on the other hand, makes food goods, and therefore children, relatively more expensive. The present framework lends support to existing unified growth theories and is well in tune with historical evidence about structural transformation.

AB - This paper provides a unified growth theory, i.e. a model that explains the very long-run economic and demographic development path of industrialized economies, stretching from the pre-industrial era to the present-day and beyond. Making strict use of Malthus' (An essay on the principle of population. London, printed for J. Johnson, 1798) so-called preventive check hypothesis-that fertility rates vary inversely with the price of food-the current study offers a new and straightforward explanation for the demographic transition and the break with the Malthusian era. Employing a two-sector framework with agriculture and industry, we demonstrate how fertility responds differently to productivity and income growth, depending on whether it emerges in agriculture or industry. Agricultural productivity and income growth makes food goods, and therefore children, relatively less expensive. Industrial productivity and income growth, on the other hand, makes food goods, and therefore children, relatively more expensive. The present framework lends support to existing unified growth theories and is well in tune with historical evidence about structural transformation.

KW - Faculty of Social Sciences

KW - economic growth

KW - population growth

KW - structural change

KW - industrial revolution

U2 - 10.1007/s10887-008-9033-7

DO - 10.1007/s10887-008-9033-7

M3 - Journal article

VL - 13

SP - 195

EP - 216

JO - Journal of Economic Growth

JF - Journal of Economic Growth

SN - 1381-4338

IS - 3

ER -